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Thursday, June 12, 2008

BSE-SENSEX - NSE-NIFTY Technical Analysis for 12th June 2008

The Sensex has recovered nearly 437 points from an intraday low of 14,747.99 and turned back above 15000 mark in late trade. It closed at 15,250.20, up by 64.88 points or 0.43%. The Nifty slipped below 4400 mark in opening trade but managed to recover nearly 132 points from day's low. It was up 15.75 points or 0.35% to settle at 4539.35. The rupee was trading at 42.85 to the dollar.

Technical Analysis for 12th June 2008


BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 15139, 15097, 15054, 14989, 14923, 14815, 14707, 14599
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 15205, 15270, 15313, 15355, 15463, 15571, 15679

NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4510, 4495, 4480, 4459, 4437, 4401, 4364, 4328
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4532, 4553, 4568, 4583, 4620, 4656, 4693, 4729

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Market turns volatile

The market witnessed a bout of volatility ahead of Reserve Bank of India`s monetary policy review scheduled at 12:00 IST. Rate sensitive banking and auto stocks edged higher while realty stocks were mixed. Metal stocks rose. The market breadth was positive. Asian markets which opened before Indian market were mixed.

At 11:28 IST, the 30-share BSE Sensex was up 63.05 points or 0.37% at 17,078.94. Sensex hit a high of 17,114.56 in early trade. At the day`s high, Sensex rose 98.6 points. Sensex lost 4.36 points at the day`s low of 17011.60 hit in mid-morning trade.

The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was up 11.3 points or 0.22% at 5,100.95.

The market breadth was positive on BSE with 1180 shares advancing as compared to 1098 that declined. 62 remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.16% to 7078.60 and BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.23% to 8,729.77.

Metal stocks rose. Tata Steel (up 2.77% to Rs 799.25), National Alluminium Company (up 2.05% to Rs 448.50), Hindalco Industries (up 0.46% to Rs 187.05), Steel Authority of India (up 0.45% to Rs 176.60) edged higher.

Banking stocks rose. State Bank of India (up 0.62% to Rs 1,747.50) and ICICI Bank (up 0.68% to Rs 900.50) edged higher. India`s second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank declined 0.47% to Rs 1,510.

Auto Stocks edged higher. India`s largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra (up 0.12% to Rs 636), Maruti Suzuki India (up 0.02% to Rs 722.50), Hero Honda Motors (up 2.06% to Rs 835) , Tata Motors (up 0.06% to Rs 634) edged higher.

Realty stocks were mixed. Indiabulls Real Estate (down 0.71% to Rs 536.95) and Unitech (down 1.41% to Rs 289.35) edged lower. Lanco Infratech (up 1.7% to Rs 496.40) and DLF (up 0.4% to Rs 671.45) edged higher.

Infosys (down 1.11% to Rs 1,646.50), Bharat Heavy Electricals (down 1.05% to Rs 1,848), Tata Consultancy Services (down 0.66% to Rs 877) edged lower from Sensex pack.

Jaiprakash Associates (up 2.25% to Rs 256.80), HDFC (up 1.84% to Rs 2772.90), Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 1.75% to Rs 487.10) edged higher from Sensex pack.

Hindustan Unilever declined 0.12% to Rs 246.75. Net profit of Hindustan Unilever declined 3.04% to Rs 380.95 crore on 19.14% rise in sales to Rs 3793.94 crore in Q1 March 2008 Q1 March 2007. The board of the company has approved the change in the financial year to April-March.

Reliance Communications declined 0.35% to Rs 582 while Bharti Airtel fell 2.36% to Rs 905.95. Reliance Communications said on Monday, 28 April 2008, it would offer unlimited national long distance calls within its network for a fixed rental with immediate effect. Earlier yesterday, sector leader Bharti Airtel slashed long distance and roaming tariffs by 43% effective 30 April 2008.

Berger Paints India rose 8.1% to Rs 44.70. The company has acquired 100% equity of Bolix S.A. (Bolix), a leading provider of external insulation finishing system (EIFS) in Poland, from Advent International, a global private equity group for $38.6 million.

India Tourism Development Corporation hit 5% upper circuit at Rs 94.90. It hit a 52-week high of Rs 94.90 today.

The outcome of the decision of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)`s annual policy review at 12:00 IST will set direction for the bourses which have witnessed a solid rebound over the past few days on the back of good Q4 March 2008 results and on the back of firm global markets. Given the high inflation, the central bank may hike key rates.

It its latest report on macroeconomic and monetary developments in 2007/08 released on Monday, 28 April 2008, RBI has said that the global food prices were likely to remain firm as supply side pressures did not appear to be abating. The central bank said steps takes by the government to rein in prices should help curb inflation. It, however, said the inflation risks on account of oil prices remain incipient.

RBI has noted that freely priced fuel items such as naphtha had increased substantially since February 2007 alongside rising global oil prices, while prices of petrol and diesel, which are government-controlled, had partially adjusted. But prices of kerosene and cooking gas had not been raised by the government for several years.

RBI felt there were some demand-side pressures. Domestic iron and steel prices saw a sharp increase in line with recent hardening in international steel prices, it said, while cement price rises could be attributed largely to strong demand from construction domestically. A survey of professional forecasters by the central bank showed that the Indian economy is expected to grow 8.1% in the 2008/09 fiscal year that began this month. In 2007/08, the gross domestic product is estimated to have grown 8.7%.

A cause for concern is the fall in business confidence index. A survey of 392 companies by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), showed that concerns about an economic slowdown, inflation and rising costs hurt business confidence of Indian firms during October-December 2007 period. The FICCI business confidence index declined to a new five-year low of 55.3 points in the third quarter of 2007/08, from 61.2 in the previous quarter.

On the flip side, a pointer to the fact that the long term India growth story remains intact is the outcome of the latest 2008 US-India Business Council (USIBC) survey, according to which, India is, and will continue to be, a premier destination for investment by US firms, with a large number of respondents rating future economic growth in India as highly sustainable.

The initial batch of Q4 March 2008 results have been good with the exception of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS).

Meanwhile, the Lok Sabha is slated to pass the Finance Bill 2008-09 today, 29 April 2008.

The two-day US Federal Reserve policy meeting ends on Wednesday, 30 April 2008. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2% and then signal that its rate-cutting cycle may be over for now in the face of mounting global energy and food inflation pressure.

As per provisional data, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 38.33 crore on Monday, 28 April 2008. Domestic funds sold shares worth a net Rs 166.61 crore on Monday.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs 455.13 crore in the futures & options segment on Monday. According to data released by the NSE, FIIs were net buyers of index futures to the tue of Rs 214.86 crore and bought index options worth Rs 137.14 crore. They were net buyers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 24.42 crore and bought stock options worth Rs 78.72 crore.

US stocks ended flat on Monday, 28 April 2008, as a $23 billion takeover of Wm Wrigley Jr Co, the world`s largest chewing gum maker, by Mars Inc, the maker of M&Ms candy, helped offset downbeat comments by influential investor Warren Buffett about the economy. Buffett said US could be mired in a longer and deeper recession than most people think.

Asian stocks were mixed today. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong and China were up by between 1.11% to 1.86%. Key benchmark indices in Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea were down by between 0.71% to 2.07%. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Where Will Tomorrow’s Oil Come From?

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the world’s leading petroleum exporter. Officially, it has reserves of about 260 billion barrels of crude oil - approximately 24% of the world’s total proven petroleum reserves.But Saudi Arabia has a problem. And it’s the same one that every oil-producing nation will face someday: Its oilwells are drying up.

Saudi Arabia’s largest and most productive field, the Ghawar field, produces about five million barrels a day - accounting for more than half of the kingdom’s total production and 6% of total world output. But Ghawar was discovered in 1948 and has required large-scale injections of seawater to artificially pressurize the well since the 1970s. There’s no telling when the last drop of oil will be purged from the biggest oil find of the 20th century, but there’s no doubt Ghawar has seen better days.

Saudi Arabia has claimed to have the same amount of oil it did 20 years ago, but logic seems to run contrary to that assertion.Saudi Arabia has announced for 20 years in a row that they have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve. It’s astonishing. The figure never goes up and it never goes down. They have produced dozens of millions - billions - of dollars of oil in that period of time.

About 75% the Kingdom’s revenue and 90% of its export earnings come from the oil industry. The oil industry accounts for 45% of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product, compared with 40% from the private sector. Without oil, Saudi Arabia would be little more than a desert. So its absolutely imperative the Kingdom find a way to maintain its high production levels.

With all of the most productive, most accessible and most cost-efficient reserves already tapped, Saudi Arabia has undertaken one of the largest industrial projects being executed in the world today. It is spending an estimated $15 billion on a vast network of pipes, treatment facilities, horizontal wells, and water-injection systems for its Khurais complex - a reserve expected to yield 1.2 million barrels a day.

Originally discovered in 1957, Saudi officials hoped the field would turn out to be another Ghawar but were vastly disappointed. The reserve lacks natural pressure, a key component in getting oil out of the ground. It was put into limited production in 1959 before being sidelined. It was brought back online when oil prices spiked in the 1970s and hit a brief peak of 150,000 barrels a day in 1981 before being shut down again.

"It was mainly token production, enough to help power the city of Riyadh and keep the king’s palace cool," Jack Zagar, a reservoir engineer who worked on Khurais in the 1970s, told The Wall Street Journal.

In 2001, reservoir engineers launched an investigation into the field’s potential and found that injecting massive amounts of seawater would be the only way to generate any significant output from the field. But Khurais is located about 120 miles inland from the Persian Gulf, and more than 60 miles west of Ghawar. Hundreds of miles of pipes will be needed to transport highly filtered saltwater from the Gulf and carry oil back from the middle of the desert.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., otherwise known as Aramco, spent 20 months shooting 2.8 million three dimensional images of the field’s geological makeup. The company then built models to simulate how the field might respond to water injection. The water injection program will require125 injection wells and dozens of electric submersible pumps to drive 2.4 million barrels of seawater a day into the reserve. That’s two barrels of water for every barrel of oil the company hopes to extract.

It will be a very risky procedure as the water will have to be filtered down to minute particles to avoid clogging the Khurais’ dense layers of rock and blocking the oil. Aramco also runs the risk of flooding the well.When you’re injecting water into the periphery [of a field], if you hit fissures in the rock and aren’t managing it well, you can have water flow in and kill a well. And a dead well doesn’t flow.

At $15 billion, the well will also be very expensive, but costly endeavors like these are the future of the oil industry. While in even the latter part of the 1990s it may have cost Aramco $4,000 to add one barrel of daily production capacity, analysts believe it now costs $16,000 for the same production increase.

Could Brazil be the "New Saudi Arabia?"

Rising global demand is a big reason reserves are running low and prices are shooting higher. The International Energy Agency estimates that demand could climb to 99 million barrels a day by 2015, up from the 87 million barrels this year.

But the fact that there hasn’t been a significant oil discovery in the last half century hasn’t hurt either.

And while there may be no stemming the rise in demand, the possibility of another significant discovery, the discovery of a deposit large enough to significantly alter the world’s energy landscape can’t be ruled out.

In fact, just such a discovery may already have been made. Not in the Middle East or Russia, but in Brazil.

Just last week, Haroldo Lima, the head of Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency, revealed the unofficial figures from a new reservoir, known as Carioca, which could hold 33 billion barrels of oil and gas. If true, Carioca would be the world’s largest discovery in at least 32 years. Upon hearing the news, brokers and analysts rushed to tell their clients that Brazil, as one minister put it just months ago, was about to become the "new Saudi Arabia."

Of course, both Jose Sergio Gabrielli, chief executive officer of Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, and Energy Minister Edison Lobao said at a press conference at Petrobras headquarters Thursday that they couldn’t confirm Lima’s estimate and reiterated that further drilling was needed before any estimate on volumes could be made.

Even if Lima is exaggerating, experts say even 10 billion recoverable barrels of oil (worth about $1.2 trillion at today’s prices) would be a remarkable find and enough to catapult Brazil into the world’s oil-producing elite. Brazil currently has about 12 billion barrels of proven reserves, and could soon find itself nestled between Nigeria (with 36 billion barrels) and Venezuela (80 billion).

However, Petrobas has a history of playing down its discoveries and is infamous for leaking discovery data. The company downplayed the discovery of the Tupi oil field before announcing last November that the reserve contained between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of light oil and gas.

Still the only certainty that comes with the Carioca discovery is that the oil, no matter how much there is, will be very hard to reach. The field is 170 miles offshore, more than 6,000 feet under the surface of the water trapped beneath a shelf of salt 500 miles long and 125 miles wide.

A decade ago, gaining access to such a field would have been a pipe dream (no pun intended). Just like Khurais, extraction will be a very costly process, even with today’s technology.

Petrobas will have to ante up quite a bit of cash to expand its use of drilling rigs, which are in short supply. Right now, there are only 40 rigs on the planet capable of drilling into massive deep-sea salt deposits.

Petrobas has already awarded Norway’s SeaDrill Ltd. contracts of up to $4.1 billion for deepwater rigs and signed a letter of understanding with Texas’ Noble for drilling contracts worth as much as $4 billion.

Companies like Transocean Inc. (RIG) Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (DO), and Pride International Inc. (PDE) could also be taking orders soon, as another big Brazilian discovery and record high oil prices could lead to a massive rush on deep-sea drilling equipment. In addition to the coast of Brazil, sub-sea salt layers are also present off the coast of Africa and in the Gulf of Mexico.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Nifty future is trading in market other than India like Singapore


The Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited (SGX-DT) launched on 25th September 2000, Monday the SGX Nifty index futures contracts. On the very first day, the index closed at 12,970 points. The intra-day high was at 13,030 point while the intra-day low was 12,840 points.

The total volume traded was 97 contracts, all for October 2000 which is the one-month contract, according to Jimmy KH Ang, executive vice-president and head of the derivatives trading division of Singapore Exchange Ltd.

Under the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with NSE, SGX-DT has been granted a licence by India Index Services & Products Limited (IISL) to trade futures and options contracts based on S&P CNX Nifty Index. Both parties have agreed to cooperate in areas relating to derivatives trading, market information sharing, staff training and technical assistance.

Underlying Stock Index : CNX Nifty Index

Ticker Symbol :IN

Contract Size : US$2 x CNX Nifty Index futures price

Minimum Price Fluctuation (tick value) : 0.5 index point (US$1)

Contract Months : 2 nearest serial months and 4 quarterly months on March, June, September and December cycle.

Trading Hours :
T Session:

Pre - Opening - 8.45am - 8.58 am
Non - Cancel Period - 8.58 am - 9.00 am
Opening - 9.00 am - 6.15 pm

T+1 Session:
Pre - Opening - 7.00 pm - 7.13 pm
Non - Cancel Period - 7.13 pm - 7.15pm
Opening - 7.15 pm -10.55 pm

Note: The underlying stock market trades from 12.30 pm - 6.00 pm Singapore time, which is 10.00 am - 3.30 pm (Indian time.)

Trading Hours on Last Trading Day : 9.00 am - 6.15 pm

Last Trading Day : Last Thursday of the month. If this happens to fall on an India holiday, the last trading day shall be the preceding business day.

The expiring contract shall close on its last trading day at 6.15 pm.

Daily Price Limits : Whenever the price moves by 10%, in either direction from the previous day's settlement price, trading at or within the price limit of 10% is allowed for the next 10 minutes. After the 10 minutes have lapsed, an expanded price limit shall come into effect. The expanded price limit shall be 20% above or below the previous day's settlement price. There shall be a further 10 minutes cooling-off period after the expanded price limit has been reached. Thereafter, there shall be no price limits for the rest of the day.

There shall be no price limits on the Last Trading Day of the expiring contract.

Settlement Basis : Cash Settlement. The Final Settlement Price shall be the official closing price of the CNX Nifty Index, which is derived based on the average weighted prices of the individual component stocks of the index during the last 30 minutes of trading. The official closing price will be rounded to two decimal places.

Position Limit : A person shall not own or control more than 25,000 contracts net long or net short in all contract months combined.

Additional Trading Facilities : Negotiated Large Trade (NLT): Minimum size 100 lots

The CNX Nifty Index

The CNX Nifty Index is a market capitalisation weighted index that comprises 50 component stocks representing some 60% of the total market capitalisation of the Indian bourse.

Please click on the following hyperlink to access information on the CNX Nifty Index's methodology, historical values and component stocks: http://www.nse-india.com/content/indices/ind_nifty.htm

Trading Holidays for the SGX CNX Nifty Index Futures Contract

The Exchange will be closed for trading in the SGX CNX Nifty Index futures contract on days where the underlying cash market in the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), is closed for trading because of scheduled India holidays.
Source : SGX website

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Astro Alert - Volatility and Uncertainty in Stock Market


See the Power of Astrological calculation we will see volatility and uncertainty in Market on 23rd April 2008 - 24th April 2008 - 25th April 2008 and 28th April 2008. Be Careful.


Crucial support for Sensex and Nifty.

The crucial support for the Sensex is at 15603, 15396, 15272, 15148, 14816, 14485, 14153, 13822 levels and Resistance is at 15811, 15935, 16059, 16266, 16474, 16805, 17137, 17468, 17800 levels.

The crucial support for the Nifty is at 4644, 4599, 4554, 4434, 4315, 4195 levels & Resistance is at 4718, 4793, 4838, 4883, 4957, 5032, 5151, 5271, 5390. if Nifty cross 5153 level then after fresh buying will be seen.

Target for Sensex is 17137 and Nifty is 5271 in the days to come.
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